The success of the Russian economy in overcoming the sanctions pressure is greatly exaggerated. The problems that Russia has faced as a result of military aggression against Ukraine can lead to a collapse in GDP by 30-50% compared to the pre-war level. The exodus of foreign business and the refusal of international cooperation with Russia raises questions about the country's technological successes, and the lack of prospects and growing problems will contribute to the exodus of skilled labor from the country, which will only complicate attempts to resume economic growth in the coming years. It is reported by CNBC with reference to a study by Yale University and economists interviewed.

The change in macroeconomic forecasts, as well as the sharp strengthening of the ruble, creates the impression that the peak of the crisis caused by Western sanctions has been overcome, but this feeling is false, experts say, and the Russian economy will soon face "oblivion" - the loss of strong positions in its usual markets . The IMF recently improved the forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2022 by 2.5 percentage points, to a fall of 6% at the end of the year, and the Bank of Russia, unexpectedly for all market participants, sharply lowered the rate to 8% per annum, while the ruble demonstrates the strongest dynamics among world currencies since the beginning of the year, CNBC notes.

However, analysts argue that such manifestations are not evidence of a "healthy economy" - just the consequences of problems will stretch for years to come. The head of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, argues that the problems in the Russian economy are growing, this can be seen, among other things, in production failures. “There is more and more evidence of violations in production, the lack of foreign components is increasingly affecting enterprises,” he told the publication.

“The brain drain will not only lead to a direct reduction in the working-age population, but will also hit GDP, as highly qualified specialists leave the country. The exodus of personnel negatively affects labor productivity, reduces innovation, which ultimately reduces investment and savings,” Bremmer said.

According to Eurasia Group estimates, if anti-Russian sanctions are maintained in the long term, Russia's GDP will decline in the range of 30-50% of GDP compared to the pre-war level. Approximately the same estimates are given in the economic report of Yale University. University representatives claim that the companies that left the Russian market could account for up to 40% of GDP, and the level of investment fell to a minimum over the past 30 years, in parallel with this, capital outflows reached peak values.

“The strategic position of Russia as one of the main exporters of raw materials has been irretrievably lost. Because of the sanctions, Russia is forced to act from a weak position, losing its usual markets and facing serious problems as part of the “pivot to the East”, for example, with the same gas supplies, ”the TV channel cites excerpts from the report.

There will be no way out of "economic oblivion": the mitigation of the consequences of the current crisis in the Russian economy is due to tough measures by the Central Bank, as well as record high prices for energy resources. The report says that in the medium term, energy prices will bounce back, but economic conditions for Russia will not, unless, of course, the West maintains its sanctions unity.

The conclusions of American experts are partially confirmed even by Russian macroeconomic forecasts. The Bank of Russia recently revised its forecast for a decline in GDP in 2022 from minus 8–10% to minus 4–6% of GDP. At the same time, the forecast for 2023 was, on the contrary, worsened : from a fall of 1–3% to a drawdown of 2–4% of GDP.