CIA director Bill Burns told the Aspen Security Forum that Russian President Vladimir Putin is an explosive mixture of "resentment, ambition and insecurity."
According to him, Putin is professionally trained "to be cynical about the very nature of man" and always pays attention to the weaknesses of those around him, which he can use.
“He doesn’t really believe in a good beginning in a person, he rather believes in control, intimidation and the desire for revenge. In my eyes, all these qualities have been strengthened over the past decades as his forcible retention of power, the reduction of his advisers, the development of a personal conviction in the fatefulness of his decisions and the growth of his appetites.
Burns recalled that when he was ambassador to Moscow more than a decade ago, Putin had a fairly large circle of people to whom he listened. Then many did not agree with him, but now this is not the case: he has a closed circle of advisers who either agree with him in everything, or are even tougher than he is. Yet the most hardline views are manifested in the war with Ukraine, says Burns:
“In no other area do these views have such rigidity as in Ukraine. He is convinced that his destiny as the leader of Russia is to restore the greatness of Russia, he believes that the main way to achieve this is to re-create a sphere of influence, and he believes that without control over Ukraine this cannot be achieved. This, in my opinion, was the cause of this terrible war.
He also said that intelligence from MI6 about Putin's plans to invade Ukraine began to be received from October 2021. Then Burns, on behalf of President Joe Biden, went on a visit to Moscow, but Putin denied that there were any plans for an invasion.
The CIA director cited US intelligence data, according to which Russia lost about 15,000 killed and about three times as many wounded in the war with Ukraine. He noted that the Ukrainian army professionally uses weapons supplied by the United States and its allies, especially the HIMARS MLRS. At the same time, Putin really believes that his task is to take control of Ukraine, and that now there are “favorable conditions” for this.
“Putin believes that Ukraine is not a real country. He was wrong about breaking the NATO alliance, and now Finland and Sweden are joining NATO, bringing NATO closer to Russia's borders. He really thought that he could take Kyiv in less than a week, and that he could take control of Ukraine. This is certainly a strategic defeat for both Putin and Russia.”
According to Burns, Russia adapted after the disastrous defeats in the first phase of the war and narrowed its tasks for a while, concentrating forces in the Donbass. The army has shifted to a more comfortable mode of warfare, using long-range weapons and destroying Ukrainian targets at long range to make up for the lack of manpower. Burns said it was similar to the situation in Chechnya in the 90s, when the Russian military had serious problems on the battlefield, retreated and smashed Grozny.
“The situation in many cities of Donbass and Ukraine as a whole is very much like Chechnya, the earth is like a lunar landscape. The progress of the Russians is very modest, while the will of the Ukrainians is still strong, as I have heard from them themselves.”
