After almost five months of war, its economic consequences for the Russians have become “normal”: just think, “McDonald’s” is now called differently. The automotive industry has almost completely stopped, the crisis is spilling over into other industries, the credit market is in collapse, the construction industry is also on the verge of collapse, but this scares few people so far – the main thing is that “mobilization” has not happened. Russia never switched to a military mobilization economy, so life is in many ways similar to pre-war, but this is a deceptive feeling, reminds economist Valery Kizilov. People in Russia, as practice shows, are able to endure for decades, so a “soft crisis” can only be resolved if the United States and the countries of the Persian Gulf agree to sharply increase oil production.

Such a policy of China is based on the dominance among the Chinese elites of the assessment of the Russian war in Ukraine as a strategic mistake made as a result of the spread in the Russian elite of the illusory idea of ​​“getting up from its knees” of the Russian Federation and the simultaneous “decline” of the United States and the West as a whole.

The main economy of the planet – the United States – is facing a real risk of recession. The printing press launched due to the pandemic, inflation record for 40 years and Russia’s war against Ukraine slowed down the American economy, and then the world economy. The stock market, frightened by bad statistics, showed the worst dynamics in 50 years. And international institutions lower their forecasts for the growth of leading economies almost every month. Cheap oil can save the situation, but in the face of Russian aggression, this cannot yet be expected.

Reuters published an investigation into the principles of the work of the largest cryptocurrency exchange on the planet Binance with citizens of Iran after the imposition of tough sanctions against the Islamic Republic by the UN, the United States and other states in 2018

The United States discovered at least 18 Russian filtration camps set up to detain and forcibly deport Ukrainians to Russia

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been trying to present China as an ally and economic alternative to Europe and the United States. Beijing does not really join the sanctions and declares that it will conduct business as usual. However, China’s trade with Russia has been falling noticeably in recent months, large-scale cooperation plans have been canceled, and a number of large companies, including Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo and UnionPay, have sharply reduced ties with Russia, and Honor and DJI have completely left the Russian market. The point is not only that companies are afraid of secondary sanctions, but also that the Chinese leadership is forced to reckon with the mood of the population, which does not support the bellicose policy of Russia.

Luxury manufacturers, among other companies, stopped cooperation with Russia after the start of the war in Ukraine. Official sanctions of the West have been added to the decisions of private brands. In particular, the United States banned the export of luxury goods to Russia over $1,000 per unit, the EU – over €300. The idea is to hurt the Russian elite, which for the most part supports Putin’s military aggression. Suppliers are concocting schemes with shim companies, and prices that were already high have become sensitive even to Russian officials.

The United States continues to try to increase pressure on the Russian budget by cutting oil and gas revenues

The United States announced the creation of a group to investigate war crimes in Ukraine

At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova commented on the speech of pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko, convicted in the United States for drug smuggling and recently returned to Russia, who accused the United States of gross violations of his rights only on the basis of his Russian citizenship (how his speech got into the program of the economic forum is a question separate):