Russia may face a longer and deeper recession in the economy than follows from official statements by the authorities, Bloomberg writes , citing an internal report for the government.
The document in question is "the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia's economic isolation due to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine," the agency writes.
Two of the three scenarios described in the report assume that the Russian economy will return to pre-war levels only at the end of the decade or even later.
Judging by the “inertial” scenario, the Russian economy will hit the bottom as early as next year, and the economy will fall by 8.3% compared to the level of 2021.
The “stress” scenario includes a fall of 11.9%, and the bottom, according to him, will be passed only in 2024.
All scenarios assume that the pressure of sanctions will intensify, and more countries are likely to join in.
Also in the report, in particular, it is specified that by 2025 up to 200 thousand IT specialists can leave Russia.
Other warnings include a forecast that a complete cessation of gas supplies to Europe could lead to loss of tax revenues of up to 400 billion rubles. New export markets will not be able to make up for lost sales, even in the medium term, the report says.
In addition, EU plans to stop imports of Russian oil products may result in a sharp reduction in production. Because of this, there will also be no fuel on the domestic market of Russia itself.
According to official forecasts, the fall in GDP in Russia will not exceed 6% this year and 4% in 2023, and "imports are at the level of 65-70% from the previous year."