In two weeks, the name of the new Prime Minister of Great Britain will be known. According to polls, the majority of members of the Conservative Party are going to give preference to Foreign Secretary Liz Truss. However, another candidate for the post of party leader, former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak, does not give up, and the struggle for the votes of party members continues.

The main debate and controversy centers around the home agenda: both candidates propose their program to save the British economy and try to answer the question that interests everyone now: how the new government is going to help the British pay their heating bills and food for the coming winter in the face of an unprecedented increase in energy prices . Inflation is rising (last month it reached 10.1%) and, according to all forecasts, will continue to grow.

The difference in approaches to solving the problem can be defined something like this: Rishi Sunak believes that the primary task of the government is to curb inflation. Taxes, in his opinion, should not be reduced until prices can be stopped.

Tax cuts - a way out or a beautiful fairy tale?

Liz Truss, on the other hand, advocates tax cuts. In her opinion, this is the only way to stimulate economic growth. Both Sunak and Truss insist that their approach to the problem is best suited to the philosophy of the Conservative Party, although the dispute, dubbed "Blue on Blue" (Blue on blue is a reference to the color that denotes the Conservative Party), is between two currents of economic thought within the same party and has nothing to do with inter-party differences. Truss is proposing to immediately repeal the National Insurance Tax increase introduced by Rishi Sunak when he was Treasury Secretary in the previous government, repeal the corporation tax proposed by Sunak, and temporarily suspend contributions to the green energy fund. Her plan would cost the budget £30bn, but Truss argues that it will not lead to a further surge in inflation, prevent a recession and eventually replenish the budget from the income from the growth of the economy. Sunak calls her plan a "fairy tale" and his supporters say Truss has "taken a vacation from reality". Rishi Sunak has nothing against tax cuts, but only after he manages to cope with rising inflation. This approach, he said, is more responsible than cutting taxes through public debt.

Each of the candidates refers to the "icon" of conservatism Margaret Thatcher, although the time when she headed the government was completely different and the challenges are different. Not to mention that the "great" Thatcher made mistakes, one of which, an unsuccessful attempt to implement the "Poll Tax", the so-called Poll Tax, cost her her post as party leader. Wanting to please the members of the conservative party, Liz Truss tries in every possible way to imitate her style. Both in clothes and in "toughness of statements", she tries to be like an "iron lady", although she herself denies this, admitting, however, that she deeply respects Thatcher as a great leader. Sunak, due to obvious external differences, has a harder time, although he often cites Thatcher's "monetarism" as an example, who, like him, knew how to count money. However, what's good for members of the Conservative Party, who the candidates are now trying to impress, may not be so attractive to most voters. In popular memory, Margaret Thatcher left not the happiest memories of herself, despite the fact that she achieved her political goals: to cut the power of trade unions and privatize large companies owned by the state.

It is interesting that Brexit almost does not appear in disputes and debates, as if they decided to forget about it, although from time to time Truss proudly says that it was she who managed to conclude profitable trade contracts with countries outside the EU (Australia, India), and Sunak never tires of reminding that Liz Truss used to advocate staying in the European Union. But none of the serious players is raising the issue of a second referendum, this train has left.

Party support, but not society

The choice of a new prime minister will be made by members of the conservative party - 160,000 not very young and mostly white men. And what does the electorate think, the voters who in 2 years, or even earlier, will vote in the parliamentary elections?

August polls, in particular a survey commissioned by the Observer newspaper, show that more than a third of those polled do not agree with the main postulate of Liz Truss, who promises to cut taxes. They believe that taxes and social spending should remain at the same level, and 26% would like to see taxes increased in general. (22%, according to this poll, agree with Truss and believe that taxes should be cut). Even among those who voted Tory in the last parliamentary elections, only 27% answered yes to the question of whether taxes should be cut: 41% believe that taxes should remain the same, and 22% that they should be cut.

According to the same poll (early August), when asked who would be the best prime minister, respondents who voted for different parties in the last elections (2019) preferred Liz Truss. (27% of the respondents would be ready to vote for her, while Rishi Sunak would enlist the support of 20% of all respondents). But according to the latest YouGov polls, Rishi Sunak has a slightly better chance of winning the parliamentary elections than Liz Truss, although both of these candidates are generally not very popular among the electorate. Ahead, according to the polls, is still Labor leader Kir Starmer.

Ukrainian question

If the candidates disagree on how to save the British economy, they are united when it comes to helping Ukraine. Both Truss and Sunak promise to continue Boris Johnson's policy of full and unconditional assistance to Ukraine and to strengthen sanctions against Russia.

Liz Truss is known for her tough remarks about Putin and his aggressive policies, which she made (and continues to do) as foreign secretary in the Johnson government. In recent weeks, during the campaign for the post of party leader, Liz Truss did not get tired of repeating that, even as prime minister, she would support Ukraine and give a tough rebuff to the aggressor.

Liz Truss is not shy about her assessments. In an April speech at the Lord Mayor's Banquet in London, she called Putin "a presumptuous aggressor who does not care about international norms." “We cannot sit idly by when the fate of Ukraine is at stake. Putin's victory will bring untold suffering to Europe and dire consequences throughout the world. We must redouble our support for Ukraine and present a united front in the face of the crisis. We will continue to push Russia out of the entire territory of Ukraine.”

“The war in Ukraine is also our war, this war concerns everyone, because the victory of Ukraine is a strategic imperative for all of us! Heavy weapons, tanks, aircraft... We must delve deeper into our weapons arsenals and increase the production of weapons.

In late July, Truss said that as prime minister, she would be Ukraine's best friend and would dedicate herself to achieving Putin's total strategic defeat so that Russia would not dare to attack its neighbors in the future. “Now, when the outcome of the conflict is being decided, is not the time to talk about compromises and concessions to a disgusting dictator ... I am a candidate whom the British people can trust to policy towards Ukraine, to protect our freedom at home and abroad.”

On June 22, 2022, Liz Truss and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba issued a joint statement: “In order to achieve peace and protect our way of life, Ukraine and the entire free world must unite, remain strong and ignore the defeatist calls of those who offer to sell Ukraine in exchange for a quick end to ongoing horror.

In late July, Truss reiterated that the first thing she would call Volodymyr Zelensky when she became prime minister, with some observers suggesting she might pay a visit to Kyiv.

In all her statements, Liz Truss repeats that the territories invaded by Russian troops rightfully belong to Ukraine, admitting that the return of Crimea to Ukraine is quite realistic.

Knowing the history of British-Russian relations, it is safe to say that the victory of Liz Truss will not change them in any way: since a terrorist attack was carried out on British soil using a radioactive substance (Alexander Litvinenko was killed using polonium), and a few years ago in Salisbury, the Petrov and Boshirov, armed with Novichok, repeated the same thing, these relations are at their lowest point.

And it's not just the position of the conservatives in relation to Russia. In the British Parliament, all factions, including Labor, are in solidarity that Russian aggression should be confronted harshly.

The outgoing prime minister was criticized from various sides for a variety of sins, but without exception, all prominent political forces supported his policy towards Ukraine. It is significant that Labor leader Kir Starmer almost word for word repeated Johnson's statements about Russian aggression and assistance to Ukraine and even demanded that the government reconsider the decision to cut the military budget.

Rishi Sunak, if he won, would hardly have radically changed the policy of supporting Ukraine, although as a financier he reminded back in March that sanctions against Russia, although he supports them, the British will have to pay.

Even before Rishi's resignation, Sunak called on British companies to stop investing in firms that in one way or another support the Putin regime, praised those companies that cut off cooperation with Russia, and quoted Johnson: "Vladimir Putin's disgusting adventure must be defeated by diplomatic, political, economic and military means."

"Putin's heinous adventure must be defeated by all means"

Sunak repeated the same when he presented the “spring budget” in April, and in July, speaking no longer as finance minister, but as one of two candidates for the post of party leader and prime minister, he addressed Ukraine and President Zelensky with these words : "President Zelensky, gallant citizens of Ukraine, you can rest assured that the United Kingdom will continue to be your most loyal ally." He promised that his first trip abroad would be a visit to Kyiv to personally express support for the "heroic president." Sunak promised to double aid to Ukraine so that it could push Russian troops out of its territory.

Unlike Sunak, Truss has not left the government and is still foreign minister, so her statements of full and unconditional economic and military support for Ukraine sound more convincing. Especially when you consider that it is she who is likely to head the government. The political elite as a whole is also determined, convincing voters that assistance to Ukraine, including military, will not run out. This was repeated on Wednesday in an interview with Radio-4 and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who, apparently, will remain in government. He recalled that the UK promised and is implementing an aid program worth 2.3 billion pounds, and is also training Ukrainian military personnel on its territory. The people still like this position. In all previous months, two-thirds of Britons surveyed unconditionally supported Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. But the multiple increase in prices coming this winter (caused in many respects by the war in Ukraine) will be a serious test for this support.