What was delivered to Ukraine
Despite many miscalculations in military planning, supply, communications, command and control problems and heavy casualties, the Russian Armed Forces (RF Armed Forces) and the formations ("people's militias") of the "DPR" and "LPR" are gradually pushing back the Ukrainian army in the operational area in the east Ukraine in Donetsk and Lugansk regions. In other directions, meanwhile, there is a relative calm (“operational pause”). The Russian command took into account the mistakes of the initial stage of the war and no longer tries to attack simultaneously in several sectors of the front and make breakthroughs with motorized columns as part of battalion tactical groups deep into the enemy’s defenses.
The nature of the fighting has changed in such a way that neither tanks nor aircraft (outside the immediate line of contact) no longer play a key role. She moved on to the "god of war" - artillery. This is also reflected in public sentiments: the Saint Javelin and Saint Panzerfaust, that is, portable close-range anti-tank weapons, which are popular on social networks, have been replaced by Saint Hymars and Moses M777, symbolizing long-range artillery systems.
In other words, now the operational situation is determined by the power of fire weapons and the ability to concentrate artillery strikes on narrow sectors of the front (for the RF Armed Forces) and, accordingly, the ability to counter such attempts or prevent them in a timely manner (for the Armed Forces of Ukraine). In this type of armed conflict, artillery (cannon and rocket) becomes the main one, along with auxiliary weapons systems (drones for reconnaissance and target designation, fire control systems, counter-battery radars), as well as the characteristics of the ammunition used and their available stocks.
Ukraine's prospects to survive in the "war of attrition" depend on the supply of Western military products: weapons, military equipment, equipment and ammunition. And if you follow the events in the media headlines, you may get the impression that the Armed Forces of Ukraine received colossal batches of weapons from the allies, decisively changing the situation in their favor.
In fact, according to the calculations of the Institute of World Economy from Kiel (Germany), the total amount of announced military assistance to Ukraine is about €20 billion, and the cost of deliveries of weapons and military equipment does not exceed €14 billion (the rest is targeted financial resources). And out of these announced €14 billion, only €8.5 billion worth of weapons was transferred to the hands of the Ukrainian military. Kyiv's military-political partners fulfill their obligations much more quickly, but their volume is small against the general background.
And if you carefully look at the range of weapons transferred to Ukraine, it turns out that modern Western systems - and not Soviet or created in the Warsaw Bloc countries - are still critically few at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For example, all tanks and infantry fighting vehicles received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are modifications of domestic T-72s and BMP-1s. The vast majority of armored personnel carriers are vehicles based on the American M113, developed back in the 1950s. More modern mine-protected and armored combat vehicles like the Australian Bushmaster, there are literally a few dozen.
Western governments are only discussing the possibility of supplying combat aircraft and helicopters, as well as air defense systems of their own production like NASAMS. Deliveries of drones, not counting the Turkish Bayraktar, are limited to light reconnaissance models and loitering ammunition.
The only category of weapons and military equipment where the influx of Western weapons is noticeable is artillery systems. At the same time, a significant proportion there is also represented by self-propelled artillery mounts (ACS) and Soviet-style MLRS with a caliber of 152 mm and 122 mm, transferred by the Czech Republic and Poland, respectively. Finding ammunition for them is now a separate headache.
How the supplied weapons are used
The most common type of combat interaction in Ukraine is now described by the term "artillery duel". The parties exchange blows at long distances and are forced to expend a huge amount of ammunition in order to ensure the density of fire coverage. The targets for strikes are accumulations of manpower and equipment, enemy combat positions and engineering structures, ammunition depots, supply lines and infrastructure facilities. Since the stocks of shells for Soviet artillery systems in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine are close to exhaustion , let us dwell in more detail on NATO heavy artillery samples. In total, a little more than 200 units of the corresponding systems of caliber 155 mm and 227 mm were delivered.
American M777 howitzers (aka “three axes”) with a firing range of 24–30 km are by far the most widespread type of Western artillery used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the M777A2 modification, howitzers are equipped with automation systems and equipment for firing precision-guided munitions, but there has not yet been any reliable information about the use of corrected projectiles during battles.
Trailed self-propelled howitzers FH70 are capable of firing at a frequency of 6 rounds per minute at a distance of 24-30 km. As far as is known, Ukraine received several FH70 units from Italy and Estonia, as well as Finnish shells for them.
American-made M109A3GN self-propelled artillery mounts, removed from storage and transferred by Norway, have a firing range of 30 km. The self-propelled guns entered the 28th and 72nd separate mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The French wheeled self-propelled gun CAESAR is distinguished by a high degree of automation, speed and maneuverability. The vehicle deploys into battle formation in just a minute, fires ammunition in a few minutes and leaves the position in about 40 seconds.
As far as one can judge, it was CAESAR that “smoke out” the Russian garrison from Snake Island. It is not surprising that Russian propaganda tried to spread disinformation about the loss and even sale of howitzers by Ukrainian military personnel.
The Polish self-propelled gun Krab has a maximum firing range of 40 km. The self-propelled gun was created as a replacement for the Soviet regimental howitzer "Gvozdika" and is being transferred to the Ukrainian side along with fire control vehicles.
The German self-propelled gun Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) is also distinguished by a high level of automation and the ability to fire at a distance of 40 km. The installations come to Ukraine with modified on-board computers and integration with the Ukrainian automated troop control system GIS Arta.
As noted in the report of the British Royal United Services Institution (RUSI), in general, NATO 155 mm artillery allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prevent the concentration of Russian troops and effectively cover the deployment of their forces. A separate conversation about multiple launch rocket systems of 227 mm caliber: wheeled M142 HIMARS and tracked M270B1 and MARS-II. The latter are still present in the Ukrainian theater of operations in single copies, so we will talk about HIMARS.
According to Valery Zaluzhny, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the timely delivery of HIMARS makes it possible to hold the line of defense in the Donbas and strike at command posts, ammunition depots and fuel bases in the rear of the Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov claims that during the time when the Armed Forces of Ukraine had only eight MLRS, they managed to destroy 30 command posts and warehouses, slowing down the pace of the Russian offensive and reducing the intensity of artillery shelling. So far, Ukrana has received 12 HIMARS units, and Reznikov's estimate has increased to 50 BC depots hit.
According to independent estimates, the rate of destruction of warehouses with shells reaches a dozen per week. The Kremlin's indirect recognition of the significant damage that HIMARS systems cause is propaganda messages about the destruction and purchase of these systems.
At the same time, Ukraine has not yet received the most long-range munitions for HIMARS — ATACMS tactical missiles with a range of up to 300 km. So now MLRS are hitting a maximum of 80 km, but with GLMRS guided missiles with GPS navigation.
In total, the US committed to send 20 units. For a front about 2000 km long, this is negligible. Although even pro-Russian sources admit : the Ukrainians successfully use HIMARS to strike important targets, and the air defense systems were unable to effectively withstand high-precision weapons.
For example, in the case of an outstanding strike on the ammunition depot in the village of Novaya Kakhovka, only half of the missiles fired were intercepted. In the Kherson direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the help of HIMARS, are trying to destroy the bridges and communication lines of the Russian group on the right bank of the Dnieper and cut off its retreat. The assessment by the state agency TASS of the effectiveness of the attack on the Antonovsky Bridge is no less impressive - 11 out of 12 missiles fired hit the target. But the success of HIMARS is due to the tactics of the Russian command, which seeks to create an overwhelming advantage in firepower on small sectors of the front in order to break through the Ukrainian defenses.
This way of warfare requires a colossal expenditure of ammunition and a complex system of logistics and storage, which creates vulnerabilities to hit by high-precision long-range systems. The Russian military really showed incredible negligence both in choosing places for storing ammunition, and in matters of camouflage and arrangement of such positions. It is likely that sooner or later they will learn better methods of camouflage or move logistics centers further from the front line. If this does not happen , then the command of the RF Armed Forces will have to look for new ways to carry out offensive tasks, not relying on super-concentration of artillery fire, or go on the defensive, which so far does not correspond to the declared goals of the Kremlin.
What is needed for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on June 13 that to end the war, Kiev needs 1,000 155-mm howitzers, 300 multiple rocket launchers, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles, 1,000 unmanned aerial vehicles. So far, of this volume, with the exception of tanks, an extremely small amount has been delivered, but it should be borne in mind that the United States has not begun shipments under the Lend-Lease program.
On July 19, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said during a discussion at the Atlantic Council that Ukraine needs about 50 HIMARS systems to stop the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces, and 100 such MLRS for a counteroffensive. But neither HIMARS nor specific types of ammunition can be considered "wonder weapons." By themselves, ultra-precise and long-range systems will not turn the tide of the war in favor of Ukraine until the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are at least equal in firepower. As of June, that is, after the start of deliveries of Western artillery systems to Ukrainians, the Russian side had a tenfold advantage in the density of artillery fire.
According to rough estimates, the superiority in barrels was 20 to 1, in shell consumption - 40 to 1. And in order to even out the situation, not only more howitzers, self-propelled guns and MLRS are required, but also an uninterrupted supply of ammunition, an effective ammunition storage and logistics system, and integrated solutions in target designation and fire control. How the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cope with this task will become clear when the number of HIMARS, CAESAR and other systems in operation will allow solving tasks at least at the operational level.
“ Until now, a number of countries, instead of supplying tanks and aircraft, adhere to the line of preventing escalation”
David Gendelman, Israeli military expert
First of all, the deliveries by the West of huge quantities of ammunition, mainly artillery, have had and are having a critical impact. Without these supplies, everything would have ended long ago. In terms of weapons, given the ongoing losses in the materiel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the fighting and missile and air strikes, the delivered weapons, primarily artillery of all types, partially compensate for these losses and the superiority of the RF Armed Forces in firepower.
Without supplies from the West, everything would have ended long ago
In order to decisively turn the situation in its favor, Ukraine needs new formations fully equipped with personnel, equipment and weapons, including heavy ones. The problem with the personnel is that the personnel core of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is knocked out during the battles and the mobilized are inferior to him in quality, even after training. But no one will help Ukraine with personnel, we have to work with what we have. You can help with weapons, which is why Ukraine has constantly demanded and continues to demand them at all sites. For a serious counter-offensive, a large amount of cannon and rocket artillery is needed; armored vehicles - tanks, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, air defense systems, as well as aviation - but aviation is a more complex issue, both technically and politically, so let's talk about aviation separately. In addition, additional means of high-quality amplification are needed to make these heavy weapons more effective - reconnaissance and attack UAVs, counter-battery radars, communications equipment, electronic warfare, etc.
From lend-lease, at least one can expect at least some increase in the amount of what is already being supplied, that is, towed and self-propelled artillery pieces, MLRS, the announced start of deliveries of air defense systems, and, of course, ammunition. Whether this increase will be significant is a matter of political decision, to what extent the US administration decides to actually mobilize the US military industry, including to compensate for the transferred from the availability. Expansion of the range to previously unsupplied platforms, such as tanks, is also a matter of political decision. A certain number could also be given from the availability, but the United States has not yet supplied tanks precisely for political reasons.
Ukraine needs new formations fully equipped with personnel, equipment and weapons
At the tactical level, HIMARS and CAESAR undoubtedly influence the course of events. For some kind of operational effect, not to mention a strategic one, the delivered quantities are not enough, but for a tactical one on a specific sector of the front, it is quite enough. The Russian offensive comes at the expense of superior firepower, so HIMARS strikes on ammunition depots disrupt the pace of the offensive - and this is their main contribution. Of course, in the information war they are much more widely represented than in the real one, but this is the essence of the information war. There are also reverse examples, such as, for example, the Ukrainian self-propelled guns "Bogdan", which received the main laurels in covering the recapture of the Serpent's Island, despite the fact that CAESAR and other Western means made a much greater contribution to this. And "Bogdan", firstly, is only one, and secondly, she has not yet completed the tests and has not been brought to full condition.
As we can see, far from all Western countries are as involved in the war as Ukraine would like. Many continue the political line of "prevention of escalation", including on the issue of supplying tanks and aircraft. And if aviation is a more difficult issue, because in addition to retraining pilots, complex ground infrastructure and complex maintenance are needed, then with tanks it is easier, and this is precisely a matter of political decision. As we have already seen, Spain, for example, announced its readiness to transfer 40 Leopard 2 tanks, but Germany blocked this decision, since the tanks were originally German, and also refused to give their own Leopard 1 from storage. Therefore, only Poland and the Czech Republic supplied Soviet-style tanks, while there were no Western ones yet.
However, as far as aviation is concerned, there has been a political shift in recent days. The US Congress approved an amendment to the annual national defense act, according to which $ 100 million is allocated for the training of Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel in working with American aircraft and aviation weapons. The original June bill explicitly stated "F-15, F-16 and other aerial platforms suitable for dogfighting" and weapons "such as the AIM-9X2 or AIM-9M" are more abstract "American aircraft" in the final version. and other aerial platforms suitable for air combat and destruction of ground targets" and "appropriate weapons". The desire to get the F-15, F-16, F / A-18, and possibly the A-10 attack aircraft, although they are limited in use compared to the above, has been expressed by Ukraine for a long time, and now we are seeing a possible start of the process.
So far, not all Western countries are as involved in the war as Ukraine would like
As for Soviet weapons, the problem is that there are almost no Soviet-style weapons available to Ukraine. There are countries where there are a lot of them, for example, in India there are several thousand tanks of Soviet and Russian models in service, but she is not going to give them to Ukraine. And in countries that agree to this, as, for example, in Eastern Europe, a significant part has already been transferred. And now we see reports that in addition to the T-72M1 tanks already delivered, Poland has also begun to transfer PT-91 Twardy tanks to Ukraine - the Polish development of the same Soviet tank. In general, the Polish Armed Forces have 232 of these tanks, which is comparable to the number of T-72M1s transferred. Therefore, if they are all handed over, for example, in exchange for American Abrams, then this is a significant number, but these are the last Polish tanks of Soviet and post-Soviet models.
The situation in Eastern Europe is similar with artillery, MLRS, air defense systems and others, as well as with parts of Soviet aircraft or entire aircraft that are supplied under the guise of parts. In general, we see that Ukrainian representatives are raking everything possible around the world, not only in Europe, and serious work is being done, but basically this reservoir has already been exhausted and there are no great prospects in this direction.
"The United States should remove restrictions on supplies from its arsenal"
Frank Ledwidge, former British military intelligence officer, Senior Lecturer at the University of Portsmouth
What we expect from lend-lease will be different from what we get. So we can expect a commitment from the US to arm the Ukrainian military to the point where they can win the conflict, reclaim their land, and impose serious strategic restrictions on Russia. But in the end, things will be much slower than expected due to American politics – with the midterm elections approaching, it may be politically difficult for the US to fully commit itself to the Ukraine conflict.
From a tactical standpoint, HIMARS and CAESAR have already had some impact on the campaign and have demonstrated the ability to strike far behind Russian military lines, in much the same way as aircraft. But the Ukrainians do not have the ability to deliver massive strikes behind the line of contact. Thus, they can only have some impact on Russian supply lines, artillery positions and ammunition depots. It is clear that they have already done it. However, in those small quantities that are currently being supplied, they will not be of operational importance.
With the midterm elections approaching, it will be politically difficult for the US to fully commit itself to the Ukraine conflict.
Obviously, the Ukrainians are trying to make the Russians believe that their communications are now vulnerable, which to some extent they are. Whether they will be able to influence the Russians to such an extent that they will change their tactics, I do not know.
I believe that the constant imposition of restrictions on arms supplies to Ukraine is unjustified. Also, from an intelligence point of view, I don't understand why the West is doing the job of Russian intelligence officers, explaining exactly how much weapons and ammunition they send, and talking about the capabilities of this equipment. This must stop. Secondly, there should be changes in the structure of supplies. The US is the only country that can make a difference, and therefore they must focus on supplies from their arsenal.
In small numbers, in a war of attrition, maneuverability can offset the numerical advantage to some extent, and all Western artillery and other weapons that have been supplied are highly accurate in nature. It also means you can use ammo much more efficiently. However, accuracy will only work in the context of a war of attrition, where Russia is many times superior to Ukraine in terms of artillery, and only if you can seriously challenge their artillery. And this means the destruction of artillery crews with guns and missile systems in the rear. This requires a combination of accuracy and quantity, which the Ukrainians do not yet possess.
“We need to supply tactical weapons to Ukraine not in units, but in dozens”
Leonid Dmitriev, Ukrainian military expert
There is definitely an impact of Western arms supplies. It is significant even despite the fact that the supply is "drip". The first deliveries of high-precision modern weapons are what allows you to get a fairly serious fire advantage, because their shells fly farther and more accurately. A few days ago, the first ever use of the German-Austrian 155 mm SMArt homing projectile in Ukraine took place in Ukraine, and it showed that this is a fairly effective weapon in the fight against enemy groups.
Modern high-precision weapons with expanded capabilities in terms of range and accuracy of fire damage, whether it be HIMARS missiles, Harpoon missiles, Brimstone missiles and many other systems that are supplied - this is what allows you to get a critical advantage for the armed forces of Ukraine. Because, other things being equal, the only way to defeat a huge amount of enemy equipment and people is to accurately and effectively defeat the rear support of the advancing group of troops.
The only way to defeat a huge amount of enemy equipment and people is to accurately and effectively defeat the rear support of the advancing group of troops.
155mm howitzers like the CAESAR are pretty much modular fire systems that use the same caliber that can be loaded from a British Excalibur to a regular HE charge. It flies in exactly the same way, only more accurately and more efficiently - it turns around faster, maneuvers along the front more efficiently, and so on. If we talk about HIMARS, then this is a rather powerful and effective weapon in tactical and operational-tactical terms, because it allows you to implement vital tasks for the defense of Ukraine - in particular, to destroy enemy field depots, rear lines and reserves in the depths of the front by 30-50 km and beyond.
In order to decisively turn the tide at the front, weapons of fire at the tactical and operational-tactical levels in commercial quantities are critically important for Ukraine - that is, not in units, but in dozens. The same applies to artillery and other missile systems that can inflict fire damage deep into the rear of the enemy, at least 100-200 km. This will make it possible to effectively cut off the lines of rear support of the enemy and provide strong and good support for effective counter-offensive operations of the armed forces of Ukraine. In addition, effective fire control systems, counter-battery systems, artillery radars, radar systems, which will provide target designation for aircraft during missile strikes, are critically important for Ukraine. Now Ukraine does not have modern means of detecting air targets.
The main thing is the armament and a sufficient number of trained personnel who can operate this equipment - from American AN / TPQ artillery radars to British ARTHUR-type fire control systems. All this is vitally important for Ukraine, because quantitatively it cannot cover the cards of the Russians with troops.
My opinion is that the lend-lease program will just include air defense systems with elements of missile defense, including medium-range systems like the American Patriot, and counter-battery and fire control systems. For example, M777 howitzers, which will work in conjunction with AN / TPQ systems, M270 and HIMARS systems with extended-range missiles and Harpoon missiles. I think that important weapons for Ukraine, such as the American Tomahawk missile, will not be included in the Lend-Lease program at this stage, but the very possibility of supplying such weapons will be a rather serious deterrent.
Ukraine does not have modern means of detecting air targets
Among the modern aviation of Western countries, there are certainly very powerful things - especially fifth-generation fighters of the F-35 type, which are already connected to neural networks that have elements of artificial intelligence and are equipped with electronic warfare. There is one but: the plane itself is good, but Ukraine does not yet have the infrastructure to accompany the flights of these modern aircraft. In particular, airfields in Ukraine are currently not adapted to receive aircraft from F-16 to F-35.
As for helicopters, the situation is much simpler and more non-trivial. The West supplies huge quantities of Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine, because the safe operation of such systems is now possible only in Ukraine. This is due to the vast experience of the Ukrainian flight crew, who are the most professional pilots on Mi-8 helicopters in the world. Most importantly, Ukraine can produce and operate blades for these helicopters, having the necessary technologies, which allows extending the service life.
As far as I know, discussions are now underway on the supply of Western-style fighters of the F-15 and F-16 type to Ukraine. Certain preparatory work is underway that would make it possible to train pilots in the operation of these machines and prepare several sites for basing such equipment. But so far this remains only in theory.
The material was prepared jointly with Vyacheslav Epureanu
