The Sokhnut crisis should be viewed precisely under the prism of Israel sending weapons to Ukraine. The Russian authorities know or assume that Israel is close to a decision to supply Ukraine with active defensive weapons, which may well become an incident in relations between Russia and Ukraine. This is a kind of "yellow card" that Russia shows the Israeli side.

Technically, the decision to close Sokhnut will not have such dramatic consequences that affect the process of organizing repatriation or holding cultural events, learning language courses, etc. There are other organizations that promote repatriation and develop local Jewish communities.

But this, of course, is a matter of political innuendo. And it is no coincidence that this is happening in this phase, in the context of the war in Ukraine.

No one is interested in a strong aggravation of relations, neither Russia nor Israel. At the same time, the Israeli side has more to lose, because the security of the Israeli military forces on the northern borders, associated with the presence of Russian troops in Syria, is an important sign by which the Israelis judge whether a good prime minister or not. Today it is believed that without the goodwill of Putin, the Russian authorities, the activities of the Israeli Air Force in Syria will be severely limited. Therefore, this is a price worth paying for Israeli politicians, even at the expense of sympathy for Ukraine.

Much today depends on the political situation in Israel. Yair Lapid is, first of all, a politician, so he will make many decisions based on public sympathies and opinion polls. He likes to feel the pulse of public sentiment and does it regularly. Recently, Lapid has felt that in order to be an alternative to Benjamin Netanyahu, who cannot be said to take a pro-Russian position, but his long-term acquaintance and friendship with Putin (as he himself claims) is a well-known fact, he considers it necessary to behave differently.

Of course, the closure of Sokhnut will create a negative background for bilateral relations, but in fact, it will be considered a special aggravation if Lapid restrains his communication and closes the Russian cultural center in Tel Aviv, which may entail the closure of the Israeli cultural center in Moscow and its representative offices in Novosibirsk and St. Petersburg. Then a truly new round of aggravation of relations will happen. If such a decision is made, it will mean that Israel and Russia are going to break off diplomatic relations, because cultural centers operate within the framework of state agreements. At this stage, neither Lapid nor the Russian authorities need this.