The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is 25 years old. More precisely, it’s 26, but due to a break in the coronavirus 2020, the anniversary event fell on the military 2022. In modern Russia, the forum looks like a real long-liver. Not many initiatives from the pre-Putin era have survived to this day with the preservation of formal features. Having built its rhetoric on the formula “if only not the dashing 90s,” the regime tried in every possible way to disown connection with them, but an exception was made for SPIEF.
It so happened that in the process of the forum's transformation, several lines converged at once, which are especially important for the Kremlin. The set of participants speaks of the country's role in the world, the amount of contracts reinforces a sense of economic power, and the opportunity to speak to important foreigners has historically attracted people from the Soviet Union. Therefore, SPIEF has become something like the Olympics or the World Cup, a platform for raising the prestige of Russia in an environment where the thirst for this prestige has grown to incredible proportions, and there are fewer and fewer peaceful ways to satisfy it. On the one hand, the forum turned out to be an excellent indicator of what is happening in the country, on the other hand, it elusively resembled another relic of the 1990s - the Field of Miracles capital show. The further into the forest, the more rituals and the desire to show oneself, and a beautiful picture makes the content deeply secondary.
"Bankers are not robbers"
Although it all started, of course, not so. In 1997, Russia, having voted against the communists a year earlier, was actively building capitalism, still unaware of the impending default. There was not enough for the construction, in addition to, in fact, economic practices, a little - respectability to the capitalists themselves, a positive, and not a gangster image. In order to communicate with the society, to indicate influence on the country and an important role in its transformation, businessmen needed a platform. This task was supposed to be solved by the event, which was promoted as “Russian Davos”. In the 1990s, the World Economic Forum for the new Russia was, in a sense, a cult place, in the minds of society, it was there, in negotiations between the powers that be, that the fate of the planet was decided.
“Closer to Davos than to a party activist”, “Will our city become another Davos”, “Decisions are being prepared here”, “It was found out at the forum that bankers are not robbers” - read the headlines of the media that talked about the Nevsky Summit (an old unofficial name of SPIEF). It was organized by the Federation Council and the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS Member States, it was said that more than 1.5 thousand people from 50 countries of the world came to it.
The numbers are solid, but the words about a thousand signed projects that will determine the development of Russia were left without details. Modest, by today's standards, was the very composition of the participants, because many of the announced speakers ignored the forum. The main figure, in fact, was the Chairman of the Federation Council Yegor Stroyev, but the first persons of the economy of those years - including Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Anatoly Chubais - did not find time for such meetings. The mainstream media did not pay attention to him either. So much so that the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Arkady Volsky, publicly asked journalists to cover such meetings in more detail.
And yet, the most important thing for the future forum was the person who visited it. Vladimir Putin, then deputy head of the presidential administration, was spotted there in the company of his former boss, ex-mayor of St. Petersburg Anatoly Sobchak. It was possible to establish another tradition that has survived to this day - luxury. Even then, journalists were surprised that out of the five days of the forum, only one was for discussion, and all the rest were devoted to parties and receptions.
Stroev's words that a positive feature of the first PEF was its absolute depoliticization are unusual by today's standards. With this prospect, the head of the Federation Council, as the future showed, did not guess right. But statements about a successful forum with a great future turned out to be prophetic. Since 1998, the event has officially become an annual event, and for its holding a fund of the same name, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, was established, which was led by German Gref. In 1999, Boris Yeltsin instructed the government to provide assistance, including financial assistance, to the organizers of the PEF. The prime ministers - Sergei Kiriyenko and Sergei Stepashin - no longer ignored the platform, the chairman of the State Duma in those years, Gennady Seleznev, and the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, spoke at it. And in 1999, a really important foreigner arrived - the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (in those years, Russia was still using IMF loans) Michel Camdessus. The amount of contracts concluded that year reached $4 billion.
Oil is pumping: the fat noughties
In the early Putin years, when oil prices went up and the reforms of the 1990s began to bear fruit , the forum more and more resembled an adequate economic discussion platform. Both the number of participants and their status grew. In 2001 it was officially named the main economic forum of the CIS, in 2002 among the guests were the head of the WTO Michael Moore and the chairman of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Jean Lemierre, and in 2004 exhibitions and presentations of European countries were held at the forum. Against this background, officials looked in his direction with great interest - in 2004, the prime ministers of Russia, Ukraine and Moldova, that is, Mikhail Fradkov, Viktor Yanukovych and Vasily Tarleev, came to St. Petersburg.
Then it became clear that this opportunity should not be missed - and in 2005, for the first time, Vladimir Putin arrived at the event as head of state. After that, the forum began to be held under the patronage of the President and took an important place on the state agenda.
It seems that it was in those years that the Kremlin finally believed that SPIEF would be able to stand on a par with Davos. “International” was added to its name, and geopolitics subtly began to enter the agenda (although this can be said about the whole country). In 2006, the motto of the previous three years "Efficient Economy - Decent Life" was changed to "The Challenges of Globalization and the Competitive Advantages of Developing Countries". A decent life, apparently, was supposed to be taken up after the solution of priority tasks. The following year, which also included Putin's Munich speech , SPIEF was held under the motto "Competitive Eurasia - Space of Trust." At the forum, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov made an unfulfilled promise that by 2020 Russia would enter the top five largest economies in the world.
In 2007, at SPIEF, Sergei Ivanov promised that by 2020 Russia would be among the five largest economies in the world.
Medvedev reboot
The first presidency of Barack Obama and, so far, the only presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, continues to be a golden age for the Russian economy. Attempts to negotiate and improve relations between the United States and Russia did not last long and, as seen from 2022, were a misguided strategy. The offer of friendship seemed to Moscow a weakness of the West and a carte blanche to prepare for expansion. Looking after the fact, the transformation of SPIEF in those years looks more than revealing.
For example, since 2008, records have come into fashion. The first Medvedev forum was marked by the maximum budget (0.72 billion rubles) and the amount of concluded contracts ($14.6 billion). In the crisis year of 2009, the scope of the SPIEF was forced to be reduced, but already in 2010, the surest way to report on success was found - the number of agreements concluded. There were 47 of them against 14 in 2007, a year later - 68, a year later - 84, and so on. The budget did not lag behind - 790 and 880 million rubles in 2010 and 2011.
In addition, SPIEF began to take on the features of an openly secular event. In 2008, the governor of Chukotka, and part-time owner of the English Chelsea football club, Roman Abramovich , arrived in St. Petersburg on his yacht and moored it near the Aurora cruiser. Another 20 participants of the events also reached by sea on their ships. In 2009, another billionaire, Mikhail Prokhorov, called hundreds of SPIEF guests to the Aurora itself, where a project by Sergei Shnurov, appropriately called Ruble, performed for them on a separate barge. Not surprisingly, in 2010 every SPIEF was accompanied by reports of escorts. Even without Instagram, which later only highlighted the phenomenon, it was difficult not to notice the corresponding contingent in hotels and forum sites.
Out of habit, the forum was also called the “Russian Davos”, but hardly anyone could answer the question about any significant similarity. Significant agreements took the place of meanings in advancing the agenda. In 2010, the presence at the forum of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde provided Roscosmos with the French Arianspace to launch launch vehicles from the Guiana Space Center, and Gazprom with agreements with the French GDF Suez and EdF on gas pipeline projects. Nord Stream and South Stream. It is clear that all the details of these contracts were discussed strongly in advance. Signing them at the forum was supposed to demonstrate the economic power of Russia, and the arrival of Sarkozy and Lagarde was to emphasize the status of the event.
The largest contracts were agreements between the St. Petersburg government and RusHydro and Sberbank for 65 and 60 billion rubles, respectively. In terms of ownership structure, it appears that a Russian state-owned corporation and bank agreed with Russian officials at an international forum whose mission was described as being a practical tool for businesses to overcome barriers between Russia and other countries. Absurd - but only if you do not assume that the real task of the SPIEF was an exhibition of achievements of the national economy with poorly concealed vanity.
SPIEF essentially became an exhibition of achievements of the national economy
The apotheosis of this period was 2013, the last pre-sanction year. The cost of holding SPIEF for the first time exceeded one billion rubles, the number of participants amounted to 7,190 people - a historical maximum, and the total amount of agreements concluded reached an exorbitant $302 billion. However, this figure was ensured by a 25-year contract between Rosneft and Chinese CNPC worth $270 billion. Intergovernmental agreement on it Russia and China concluded in March, however, it was also included in the SPIEF-2013 statistics.
Returning to the presidency in 2012 and defeating the protests on this issue in a year, Vladimir Putin became the main innovator and generator of ideas. Everyone else could discuss and exchange comments, but only about decisions already made, without criticism. At SPIEF, the head of state, in particular, announced that the Supreme and Supreme Arbitration Courts are merging, the role of the state in state-owned companies is being strengthened, the institution of public ombudsmen is being created, and the NWF is being spent on development.
Other four letters: after Crimea
The annexation of Crimea, the proxy war in Donbass, and sanctions have halted economic growth and any development of the country. For the Russian leadership, this meant only one thing - now the goal of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was to prove to the world that everything was going according to plan in Russia, there was no international isolation, and the attempt to limit the country's economic influence was failing. All forces were thrown at this.
The logic of records made it possible to solve such a state task - every year the number of agreements updated the maximum. In 2014, there were 175 of them, and in 2021 - already 800. Both the cost of the event and the number of participants were constantly growing - in 2019 they reached the mark of three billion rubles and 19 thousand people.
In 2014, Christophe de Margerie, Chairman of the Board of Total, became the most important foreign guest (he will die in a plane crash at Vnukovo Airport the same year), but he will take a modest 20th place in the list of the most quoted people of the forum. Besides, of course, Putin, ten officials, eight top managers of state-owned companies and a friend of the head of state, businessman Gennady Timchenko, were more popular than him. The political elite enjoyed communicating with themselves, and collective self-consolation became the meaning.
In the next five years, a new stage in the life of SPIEF, the forum turned into a fourth part of Putin's communication with the world. As part of the straight line, Putin tried on the role of a kind but fair leader who understands the needs of the common man. At a big press conference, he made it clear that he was keeping everything that happens in the country (and in the world) under control, although in recent years the differences between the two events have become less and less. The address to the Federal Assembly emphasized his status as a strategist, while SPIEF became a place for stories about the victories of the Russian economy and successful confrontation with the West. Foreign hosts became a separate feature - they at least outwardly confirmed the serious international, if not global, nature of the event.
After Crimea, SPIEF became a place for stories about economic victories and successful confrontation with the West
As part of the latest trend, the list of significant guests has seriously shifted towards Asia and the Middle East. In 2015, the forum was attended by the head of China Xi Jinping, as well as the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar, Mongolia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Iraq. Later, SPIEF was represented by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, UN Secretary Generals Ban Ki-moon and António Guterres, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pelleghini, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who, apparently, is perhaps the last among Western politicians, has lost hope of reaching an agreement with Putin. The participation of high-status guests also played a legitimizing function. In the end, negotiations at the highest level were held, but for their participants, the arrival in St. Petersburg for the economic forum looks like a less demonstrative gesture than a separate program of the visit.
In other words, the format has taken shape and stabilized — Putin is negotiating with foreign leaders, Russian officials, politicians and oligarchs publicly discuss everything related to the economy with each other, and the signing of large contracts timed to coincide with the signing of major contracts allows us to talk about the continued success of SPIEF. As in the case of the Direct Line and the big press conference, a certain opposition was allowed, but only to demonstrate the political establishment's self-confidence and ability to refute everything.
So, in 2019, the head of the Accounts Chamber, Alexei Kudrin, called the arrest of the founder of Baring Vostok, Michael Calvey, a shock to the Russian economy, which led to a doubling of the outflow of capital from Russia. To this, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the situation did not affect the investment climate, and in general, too much attention is paid to it. If you look at the list of the main statements of the forum compiled by Kommersant, you will only be able to find officials and heads of state enterprises there. The cabal has ceased to raise questions, the absolutely depoliticized event, in the words of Stroev, has finally become politicized. And since the officials said about the same thing as always, the attention of the society shifted more and more to the other side. For example, to discuss the young SPIEF participants, who actively took pictures at the stands, but were hardly related to business.
After that, no one, except for the sake of appearances, was surprised at the stand of the Prosecutor General's Office in 2021. In the end, the security forces became an extremely influential participant in the economic life of the country, and they definitely deserve their stand. And the speech of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov looked very appropriate against the backdrop of Oleg Deripaska's statement about self-destruction of the opposition. Sincere and loyal to the practice of escort billionaire said that now the country has received ten years of stability. True, for some reason he believed that with her the time had come to bet on entrepreneurs and a new social contract.
The treaty at the beginning of 2022 has indeed changed. But hardly in the direction that Deripaska dreamed of. This conclusion can be drawn from the fact that the billionaire spent the beginning of the SPIEF not on the sidelines of the forum, but on agricultural fields. In his Telegram channel, he published a video from there with a voiceover and the assurance that there would be no hunger. However, he still flew to Putin's speech, probably afraid of blowing himself up.
"Adequate men" - the Taliban, Vovan, Lexus and Pushilin
The war with Ukraine has washed away all the make-up from what SPIEF has become. The inertia exposed the true goals of the event to a grotesque level. The status of the international forum was secured by the delegation of Egypt, the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who showed unexpected independence, and the main newsmakers of the first days - the heads of the DPR and LPR Denis Pushilin and Leonid Pasechnik, as well as representatives of the Taliban group. The stigma of terrorists did not prevent "adequate men", as Russian ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov described the Taliban, from making plans to develop economic ties with Russia - selling fruits and minerals, and buying oil, gas and wheat.
The organizers, out of habit, talked about the impressive composition of the participants, but they preferred not to publish the lists. Источники, впрочем, утверждают, что многие компании опасались публично признать, что прислали представителей на ПМЭФ из-за возможности санкций или просто обструкций со стороны мирового сообщества. Поэтому отдуваться за публичность пришлось людям, терять которым уже нечего.
В первый день главным событием стала дискуссия с участием официального представителя МИДа Марии Захаровой, серого кардинала прокремлевских телеграм-каналов Кристины Потупчик (впервые приняла участие в ПМЭФ еще в 2018 году), а также пранкеров Вована и Лексуса, которые показали свое последнее достижение — розыгрыш писательницы Джоан Роулинг. Из экономических смыслов можно выделить призыв Силуанова пересадить чиновников на отечественный автопром, крайне актуальное предложение помощника президента Максима Орешкина обратить внимание на авторов негативных прогнозов, не враги ли они родины, а также идея ЦБ постепенно девалютизировать вклады населения.
Гостей форума тем временем развлекала улетающая в космос сода от «Башкирской содовой компании» (только на оформление экспозиции и зон общения было потрачено 200 млн рублей), робот-буфетчица Дуняша (прототипом стала жена пермского бизнесмена Рашида Габдуллина Диана, «Мисс Пермь-2014») и стенд Ростовской области с Антоном Чеховым, Петром Первым и Карлом Марксом в окружении музыкальных инструментов.
Снова на арене: к кому обращался Путин
Другими словами, все три дня выглядели декорацией для очередной исторической речи Путина, которую провластные СМИ анонсировали не иначе, как провозглашение «нового мирового порядка». На деле программа оказалась набором из тезисов не первой свежести и ресентимента, в котором чередовались обида на Запад, надежда на дружественные страны, вера в свои силы, неизбежность собственного успеха и апелляция к отечественной истории.
«Россия, наши действия по освобождению Донбасса здесь абсолютно ни при чем. Сегодняшний рост цен, инфляция, проблемы с продовольствием и топливом, бензином, в энергетике в целом — это результат системных ошибок в экономической политике действующей администрации США и европейской бюрократии», — заявил президент.
В версии Путина, в энергетическом и продовольственном кризисе виноват исключительно Запад и санкции, при этом война с Украиной ни при чем — на это президент особенно упирал. Евросоюз утратил субъектность и перешел под контроль США, Россия готова сотрудничать со всеми, кто согласен, общество консолидировано как никогда, цель — не импортозамещение, а развитие лучших в мире технологий. А что касается обещаний — снижение ставок по льготной ипотеке, отмена проверок российского бизнеса и пересмотр сроков заключения предпринимателей, комплексная программа модернизации ЖКХ, повышение уровня жизни на селе.
«Последние события только подтвердили то, о чем я говорил ранее: дома надежнее. Те, кто не захотел услышать этот очевидный посыл, потеряли на Западе сотни миллионов, если не миллиарды долларов», — настаивает глава государства.
Бросилось в глаза, что более чем за час Путин не допустил даже минимального упоминания о Китае, главном торговом противнике США. На фоне последовавшего затем видеообращения главы КНР Си Цзиньпина к участникам форума это обстоятельство может свидетельствовать разве что о явном раздражении Путина. Ведь помощь, на которую так рассчитывали последние годы, очевидно буксует, причем в самых неожиданных местах. Технологии, коммуникационное оборудование, поставки деталей для самолетов — везде Китай предпочитает уклоняться.
Путина явно раздражает, что помощь от Китая буксует
А уже во время дискуссии холодным душем для Путина стало поведение Токаева, чье имя Путин так и не научился выговаривать. Президент Казахстана не просто заявил, что вряд ли признает независимость ДНР и ЛНР, но и отчитал некоторых российских депутатов и журналистов, которые позволили себе неприятные высказывания в адрес его страны. Ни для кого не секрет, что среди этих людей Тигран Кеосаян , муж Маргариты Симоньян, модератора беседы. Вряд ли хозяин форума ожидал, что отчитывать его пропагандистов будет глава Казахстана.
На кого было рассчитано выступление Путина — вопрос сложный. Это не обращение к руководству западных стран, ведь США — враги, а Евросоюз — вассалы, о чем с ними говорить? Это и не попытка поговорить с народом России — слишком вскользь была упомянута война, да и социальный блок был сравнительно кратким. Призывы к бизнесу инвестировать в Россию звучали как дежавю, словно были списаны с прошлых речей. Слова о суверенитете сопровождались объяснением, что без него Россия начнет продавать седла. Кому они нужны в 21 веке, не уточнялось.
Все выглядит так, что больше всего эта речь была нужна самому Путину, а настоящим ее адресатом была история. Чтобы потомки, прослушав выступление национального лидера на RuTube, оценили мудрый взгляд и верность прогнозов. А пока аплодисменты аудитории помогут ощутить, что ничего страшного не случилось, все еще впереди, колесо истории сделает оборот, а Россия будет великой снова. Маршрут «партактив — Давос — партактив» пройден успешно.
